The past quarter has witnessed growing antiterrorist cooperation by the core ASEAN states (Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand) with the United States to apprehend the Bali bombers and others bent on attacking Western interests.  Although Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand were reticent about supporting the U.S. war in Iraq because of concern about the political backlash from their own Muslim populations, these states as well as Singapore and the Philippines – openly enthusiastic about Washington’s quick Iraq victory – are looking beyond the war to economic reconstruction opportunities there.  American plans to reduce and reposition forces in the Pacific may have a Philippine component if Manila agrees to prepositioning military supplies there.  The United States also expressed concern over Indonesia’s military assault on Aceh province, Cambodian violence against Thai residents, and Burma’s crackdown on the pro-democracy opposition.

Antiterrorist Cooperation in the Philippines

Controversy surrounds the joint Philippine-U.S. Balikatan 03 military exercises undertaken this year in Luzon and still in the planning stages for Mindanao.  While the Luzon exercises near the former Clark Air Base went off smoothly, plans for the southern Philippines have yet to be implemented.  The United States seemed to want to alter the “terms of reference” for the exercise to a “joint operation” that would take place in the Sulu archipelago, home to the Abu Sayyaf terrorist group against which last year’s Balikatan 02 had also been directed.  The problem is that a “joint operation” would seem to allow U.S. forces a combat role that they did not have in 2002 and which would also violate the Philippine constitution’s prohibition against foreign combat operations on Philippine territory.  In late April, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo settled the issue by insisting that U.S. forces in the Sulu islands would once again engage exclusively in training Philippine forces and in civic action projects that had been very well received by the local population last year in Basilan.

Adding to Philippine-U.S. controversy was an early May statement by U.S. Ambassador Francis Ricciardone that the United States was considering classifying the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) a terrorist group if it continues violent acts against civilians in the south.  At the same time, the U.S. ambassador held out the prospect of economic aid to MILF-dominated areas if the MILF “chooses to have peace in these areas …”  A number of Philippine senators objected to the ambassador’s statement, noting that it could pave the way for “full-scale U.S. involvement” in the government’s war against the MILF.  Nevertheless, the Arroyo government is laying the groundwork for a terrorist declaration against the MILF by revealing documents captured from the rebels’ Buliok complex in February 2003 that belied the group’s claim that it had no links with Abu Sayyaf, Jemaah Islamiyah, or al-Qaeda. Recovered documents, according to the Philippine government, also confirmed plans to conduct bombing operations throughout the south.  The MILF responded to these revelations by warning the United States not to assist Philippine troops in their fight against the insurgents.  So long as U.S. forces refrained from combat, the MILF would cause them no harm.  Given the uncertainty surrounding the Philippine government-MILF relationship, Balikatan 03 has been postponed until the end of this year.

What most worries U.S. officials is that camps in MILF-controlled parts of the southern Philippines provide explosives training to Jemaah Islamiyah recruits from throughout Southeast Asia. According to Philippine intelligence, instructors are Indonesians and Arabs as well as Filipinos.

The most important U.S. reward for the Arroyo government’s staunch support in the U.S. war on terrorism and its war in Iraq was a substantial new military and economic aid program announced during the Philippine president’s May 19 meeting with President Bush in the White House.  The U.S. will provide $100 million in new military assistance and has designated the Philippines a “major non-NATO ally,” the first Asian developing state to attain that status.  The designation puts the Philippines in the same category as Australia, Egypt, and Israel with respect to U.S. military ties and provides greater access to American defense equipment – currently in desperately short supply in the Philippines.

In recognition of ongoing negotiations between Manila and the MILF, despite the latter’s apparent attacks against civilian infrastructure in the south, the Bush administration authorized $30 million in development assistance and support to the peace process with the MILF in Mindanao.  While development assistance was the “carrot” in the U.S. aid package, there was also a substantial “stick” for the Philippine Armed Forces in a $30 million grant for counterterrorism training and 30 new military helicopters to be added to the 15 currently operational. The entire Philippine military wish list was not met, however, for no C-130 transport aircraft were included, though only two are currently flying.  The armed forces also need fast patrol boats to guard the country’s maritime borders and improved communications.

On a more somber note, corruption in the Philippine armed forces was alleged by American missionary Gracia Burnham, who was rescued after more than a year in Abu Sayyaf captivity during a shootout between Philippine troops and the kidnappers.  Mrs. Burnham was wounded and her husband killed along with a Filipina nurse in the firefight.  Although ransom had been paid for the Burnhams, they were not released, according to Mrs. Burnham, because a Philippine general demanded a 50 percent cut.  These allegations appear in a new book by Burnham titled, “My Enemies.”  The original rationale for U.S. military training of Philippine forces in Basilan last year was to aid in the Burnhams’ rescue.  In response, the Philippine government has inaugurated a formal investigation of Burnham’s allegations with the assistance of U.S. authorities, though no admission of corruption has occurred.

Philippine and Thailand Eager for Iraq Reconstruction Contracts

Unsurprisingly, the Philippines expects to reap some Iraq reconstruction benefits from its early, strong endorsement of the U.S. war to overthrow Saddam Hussein.  Less predictable, however, is Thailand’s bid for Iraq reconstruction given Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s refusal to support publicly the U.S. Iraq intervention.  Philippine President Arroyo has offered to send a 500-person team of military and police peacekeepers, medical workers, and engineers.  Foreign Secretary Blase Ople displayed grander ambitions by stating that the Philippines hoped for 100,000 jobs in Iraq’s reconstruction.  Manila expects that the Philippine humanitarian contingent will be funded by the United States.

Filipino companies and the government have been lobbying the lead U.S. corporation for Iraq reconstruction, Bechtel, which may ultimately be responsible for a U.S. AID contract approaching $20 billion.  Bechtel anticipates subcontracting 75 percent of the reconstruction work, and Filipino representatives are emphasizing that they have a well-educated, low cost English-speaking labor force that has worked around the world with U.S. companies.

Thailand has also been invited to U.S. and British reconstruction briefings.  Companies in the food, construction, furniture, and architecture industries are particularly interested.  A Thai trade official stated that his country’s ability to supply a variety of construction and electrical materials would be quite competitive.  Thailand is setting up a task force in the United States and Kuwait to seek reconstruction opportunities.

Singapore’s reward for supporting the U.S. war in Iraq is in the realm of military equipment and a new free trade agreement. The latter was initialed during Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong’s early May visit to Washington.  The military reward is permission for the island republic to arm its home-based F-16s with radar-guided medium-range AMRAAM missiles, the first such to be deployed in the region.  Although Malaysia and Thailand also have AMRAAMs in their inventories, they are kept in storage in the United States under U.S. guidelines. Malaysia criticized the U.S. Iraq intervention, while Thailand was neutral.  By contrast, Singapore made available KC-135 tankers to refuel American aircraft flying from the U.S. mainland to a staging base in Diego Garcia.

Thailand: Military Exercises and the War on Terror and Crime

This year’s Cobra Gold joint exercise (May 16-29), which included 7,600 U.S. and 500 Thai soldiers, as well as a smaller number from Singapore for the second time, was also attended by observers from 11 states, among them China and Vietnam.  All participants and observers were screened for SARS on arrival.  For the second year in a row, Cobra Gold-2003 included an antiterrorist component.  The tripartite exercise was followed a month later by a Thai-U.S. naval maneuver – the annual Cooperation Afloat Readiness Training (CARAT) – which involved 1,500 U.S. sailors and marines and 1,700 Thais.  The annual bilateral U.S. CARAT exercises are also held with Brunei, Singapore, and Malaysia. Training covers maneuvering, communications, gunnery, diving and salvage, and amphibious operations.

There is also speculation that the United States has approached Thailand about the possibility of locating a “forward positioning” site in the country as part of a general repositioning plan for U.S. forces in the Pacific.  The site would be primarily for logistics where equipment would be stored for regional operations.  Currently, in Southeast Asia, only the Philippines has provided this type of facility.  As yet, no official U.S. request has been made to Thailand.

Tension in U.S.-Thai relations also surfaced this past quarter as Washington expressed “serious concern” over the Thaksin government’s brutal crackdown on drug dealers throughout the country.  Over 2,000 people were killed (allegedly by police) between February and April in what appear to have been summary executions.  The United States has provided $3 million to aid Thailand in its fight against drug trafficking.  However, U.S. law provides that assistance be suspended if a country is found to be systematically violating human rights.  Both international and local human rights NGOs have accused the Thai government of sanctioning the extrajudicial killings.

Thailand appears to have become more deeply involved in the U.S. war on terror, though Prime Minister Thaksin prefers to maintain a low profile on this issue.  According to U.S. officials cited in The New York Times on June 8, Thaksin has allowed the CIA to interrogate suspected members of al-Qaeda in secure locations, and Thailand has let the U.S. Air Force use Thai bases for both its Afghanistan and Iraq wars.  Utapao Air Base served as a transit point for both engagements.

Because Thailand has been a meeting place for Southeast Asian terrorists and an easy place to acquire false documents, the United States, Australia, and several other countries have placed law enforcement agents at Bangkok’s international airport looking for people traveling under false documents.  Over 200 false passports are seized each week.  In a mid-June visit to Washington, the Thai prime minister for the first time publicly declared that Thailand is an ally in the worldwide campaign against terror.

The focus of Thai antiterrorist attention is the south where Muslims are in the majority and have close relations with co-religionists in northern Malaysia.  In June, two Thai Muslims were arrested in a province bordering Malaysia, who allegedly admitted planning attacks on embassies in Bangkok, including that of the United States.  After a long period of denial, the Thai government now acknowledges the presence of Jemaah Islamiyah members in its territory.  Defense Minister Thanarak Isarangura, accompanying the prime minister to Washington in mid-June, stated that Thailand is ready to cooperate with the U.S. antiterror campaign.  Moreover, Malaysia and Singapore have joined Thailand in an operation to apprehend some 29 members of Jemaah Islamiyah believed to be posing as Islamic religious teachers in the southern Thai border provinces.  However, many Thai Muslims in the south believe the crackdown is a frameup designed to curry favor with the United States.

ASEAN and ARF Grapple with Terrorism and other Concerns

From June 16-19, the ASEAN foreign ministers, their dialogue partners, and members of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) met in Phnom Penh, focusing on regional progress with respect to the war on terrorism.  Secretary of State Colin Powell represented the United States.  The ASEAN foreign ministers concluded their discussions with a commitment to greater cooperation among law enforcement agencies to implement regional agreements already reached on the war on terrorism.  ASEAN ministers also revealed that they and the United States would soon endorse a five-point counterterrorist plan that could involve U.S. assistance in safeguarding shipping in the Malacca Strait, including the sharing of intelligence information.  Along the same lines, the ministers welcomed the establishment of a Southeast Asia Regional Center for Counter-Terrorism in Kuala Lumpur.  The Center will be funded by the United States but administered entirely by Southeast Asian states.

Both ASEAN and the ARF expressed concern over the detention of Aung San Suu Kyi by Burmese authorities and urged her immediate release.  On North Korea, the ARF supported the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and prodded North Korea to resume cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and reverse its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

The ARF also adopted a statement on “Cooperation Against Piracy and Other Threats to Maritime Security” that linked piracy to transnational organized crime.  In addition to encouraging anti-piracy exercises among the littoral states of East Asia, the statement endorsed the International Maritime Bureau proposals that prescribe traffic lanes for large supertankers to be escorted by coast guard or navy vessels upon the agreement of all ARF members.

Indonesia: Human Rights, Antiterrorism, Aceh Dominate Agenda

This past quarter U.S.-Indonesian relations displayed both cooperation and consternation.  After considerable political pressure from Washington and Canberra, a military court convicted seven members of Indonesia’s elite Special Forces for the torture and murder of Theys Eluay, the leader of a non-violent campaign for independence for Irian Jaya (Papua). The convictions were a rare instance of soldiers being held accountable for human rights abuses, but the maximum sentence of only 3.5 years brought immediate criticism from human rights groups.  A combination of praise and frustration can also be found in Secretary Powell’s positive assessment of Indonesia’s moves against terrorism represented in the trial of alleged Jemaah Islamiyah leader Abu Bakar Bashir.  In recognition of Indonesia’s crackdown on Jemaah Islamiyah and President Megawati Sukarnoputri’s moderate stance on the U.S. war in Iraq, the United States permitted families of American diplomats to return to the country.  While the Indonesian president and foreign minister condemned the U.S. invasion of Iraq, they declared that the American action was not a war on Islam.

The Bush administration has been trying to find ways to restore financial aid to the Indonesian military which lost that assistance in the 1990s because of human rights abuses in East Timor.  While Congress had approved a small training program via the U.S. International Military and Education Training Program (IMET), it has been suspended until the FBI determines whether the Indonesian military was involved in an attack last August that killed two Americans and an Indonesian in Papua province.  Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz stated in late May that the future of military relations between the two countries depended on a satisfactory investigation of and resolution to the Freeport killings.  Although FBI officials have visited Papua on several occasions, they have been frustrated by lack of cooperation from the Indonesian authorities, suggesting a coverup of the military’s culpability.

Adding to these difficulties has been the Indonesian army’s offensive into the rebellious northern Sumatra province of Aceh, launched in mid-May. Approximately 40,000 soldiers have deployed in the province to confront an estimated 3,000 guerrillas who have been fighting sporadically for independence for nearly 30 years.  Rich in minerals and natural gas, one of the major grievances of the rebels is what they regard as an unfair distribution of the province’s wealth by the central government.

Indonesian officials have used the U.S. invasion of Iraq and its general war on terrorism to justify the Aceh invasion as a campaign to crush a terrorist movement.  The United States and other countries had brokered talks between the rebel organization GAM and the Indonesian government in Tokyo that failed.  Jakarta is counting on general international support for its territorial integrity, and the United States has backed Indonesia’s position, though the State Department also regretted that neither the rebels nor the government did more to avoid war in the Tokyo talks.  Deputy Secretary Wolfowitz, a former U.S. ambassador to Indonesia, warned the Indonesian army that its war on the Aceh rebels could not be won militarily.  He also urged Jakarta to permit human rights monitors into the province, a prospect resisted by the military.  By late June, however, the civilian government authorized human rights representatives to go into Aceh provided they registered with the government.

Meanwhile, these frictions between the United States and Indonesia have led the latter to look elsewhere for military supplies.  In late April, Jakarta decided to purchase Su-27 and Su-30 combat aircraft as well as Mi-35 helicopters from Russia, partly because they would reduce Indonesia’s dependence on the United States.

Cambodia and Burma Draw U.S. Ire

Although the United States maintains diplomatic relations with both Cambodia and Burma, it has treated their authoritarian corrupt governments as semi-pariahs.  In May, the State Department issued a report condemning the rise in politically motivated violence in Cambodia, specifically Phnom Penh’s instigation of anti-Thai violence in the capital the preceding January.  The Thai embassy was razed, and the ambassador and his staff had to flee to neighboring diplomatic establishments.  Thai businesses were also torched and looted.  While Cambodia subsequently paid damages to Thailand and official relations between the neighbors have been restored, the U.S. report labeled the January events as a cynical manipulation of Cambodian nationalist sentiments for domestic political purposes.

To their credit, Cambodian authorities, on information from U.S. officials, closed a Saudi-funded religious school and arrested three foreigners for international terrorism and membership in Jemaah Islamiyah.  The arrests occurred two weeks before the annual ASEAN gathering, this year in Phnom Penh, which Secretary Powell would be attending. The arrests were Cambodia’s way of demonstrating its commitment to security for the conference.

Once again Burma embarrassed ASEAN and infuriated the United States and other countries by arresting Nobel laureate and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi while her convoy was traveling in northern Burma.  Military-backed thugs attacked the pro-democracy leader and her supporters inflicting a number of casualties before the military detained her.  Breaking with its previous hands-off policy toward Burma’s domestic politics, ASEAN publicly chastised the military junta for its crackdown on dissent and detention of Mrs. Suu Kyi, labeling the developments, “a setback not just for Myanmar [Burma] but also for ASEAN.”  Secretary Powell, at the ASEAN meeting, called for Mrs. Suu Kyi’s release and accused the junta of violating “the fundamental rights of its citizens with impunity” as well as “international human rights obligations.”

Conclusion

U.S. policy toward Southeast Asia encompasses several dimensions.  The top priority is continued antiterrorist cooperation through military assistance to the Philippines and law enforcement support to other members of ASEAN.  On the economic dimension, the United States signed a free trade accord with Singapore this quarter, possibly a precursor to similar trade pacts with Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines.  The Singapore agreement was praised by the city-state’s prime minister as a means of insuring that the United States remains embedded economically in Southeast Asia and provides a counterweight to China’s surging economic heft in the region.  Finally, in what may be a portent for the region’s future, ASEAN’s new leader for 2003-2004, Indonesia, released a position paper calling on the group to create a formal security community to combat terrorism, train peacekeepers, and arrange for regular meetings of the region’s police and defense ministers.  This proposal will undoubtedly be welcomed by the U.S.