Developments on China’s domestic front were prominent this quarter with extreme winter weather coinciding with the Spring Festival, the annual convocation of the “two meetings” in Beijing, and protests in Tibet that spread to neighboring provinces with Tibetan populations.  Key events in Sino-U.S. bilateral ties included the fifth Senior Dialogue in Guiyang, a brief visit by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to kick-start the Six-Party Talks, and a visit by FBI Director Robert Mueller to discuss security for the upcoming August Olympic Games.  In the military sphere, the Commander of U.S. Pacific Command Adm. Timothy Keating traveled to China and the Defense Policy Coordination Talks produced several agreements.  Stable and complicated were watchwords for the Sino-U.S. relationship.

Domestic events in China capture attention

For Chinese leaders, domestic concerns always take priority over foreign policy, and the opening quarter of 2008 was no exception.  Extreme winter weather, the worst in five decades, hit China’s central, southern, and eastern provinces in January and February, claiming 129 lives and destroying 485,000 houses and 90 million hectares of crops – $22 billion in direct economic losses.  The snowstorms occurred at the peak of the Spring Festival travel season, stranding millions of travelers at airports and train stations.  To alleviate public suffering and underscore the government’s responsiveness to the people’s needs, the central government mobilized 300,000 soldiers, 325,000 armed police, and 1.85 million paramilitary to participate in disaster relief efforts. The U.S. government donated $150,000 and the Department of Defense provided disaster relief materials worth about $820,000.  When Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice met Chinese President Hu Jintao in late February, Hu thanked the U.S. people and government for their assistance.

In March, Chinese attention focused on the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, the legislature’s top noncommunist advisory body, and the National Party Congress (NPC), the nation’s legislature.  The NPC signed into law decisions made at the CCP Party Congress last November, appointed new Cabinet ministers and other top officials, approved a 17.6 percent increase in the military budget, and unveiled a bureaucratic reorganization that established “super-ministries” for industry, transport, housing, construction, and the environment to promote efficiency and end turf wars.

While the NPC was still in session, protests erupted in Tibet, posing a major challenge to the Chinese leadership just five months prior the Beijing Olympics. Peaceful demonstrations by monks at monasteries in Tibet on March 10, marking the 49^th anniversary of the failed 1959 uprising against Communist rule, were followed by riots in Lhasa, the capital of Tibet, and spread to Tibetan populations in neighboring Sichuan, Qinghai, and Gansu provinces.  The Chinese government first dispatched police to quell the violence and subsequently sent PLA units to assist.  According to China’s official Xinhua news agency, 18 civilians and one police officer died while 241 police officers and 382 civilians were injured.  The Tibetan government-in-exile, based in India, disputed Beijing’s casualty figures, saying at least 140 people died in demonstrations.

In a statement issued March 15, Secretary Rice voiced concern about “reports of a sharply increased police and military presence in and around Lhasa” and called on China to “exercise restraint” in dealing with the protests and urged all sides “to refrain from violence.”  Rice cited President Bush’s consistent support for “substantive dialogue” between the Chinese government and the Dalai Lama and his representatives “so that long-standing issues with regard to Tibet may be resolved.”  Rice also conveyed U.S. concern about the situation in Tibet in a phone call with Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, who insisted that “the violent crimes were organized, premeditated, and masterminded by the Dalai Lama clique, with the collaboration of domestic and overseas separatist forces seeking ‘Tibet independence.’” President Bush’s silence on the events in Tibet was notable.

Administration officials maintained that Bush believed it would be more effective to communicate privately with Hu Jintao, with whom the president has a special rapport.  They said Bush privately had counseled restraint, the admission of U.S. observers into Tibet, and the conduct of open trials of those who had been arrested.  On March 26, Bush phoned Hu and urged the resumption of consultations with representatives of the Dalai Lama as part of a process that addresses the grievances of the people in Tibet.  In reply, according to Xinhua, Hu reiterated Beijing’s willingness to have a dialogue with the Dalai Lama “As long as the Dalai really gives up his proposal for “Tibet independence,” stops his activity of splitting the motherland, particularly the criminal activities he instigated and planned in Tibet and other localities as well as the activity of undermining the Beijing Olympics, and recognizes that Tibet and Taiwan are inseparable parts of Chinese territory.”  The exchange did not suggest any new flexibility on the part of Beijing.

Senior dialogue and senior visits promote relations

Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte traveled to the city of Guiyang in Guizhou province with his counterpart Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Dai Bingguo for the fifth U.S.-China Senior Dialogue Jan. 17-18.  The agenda included regional security issues such as Burma, North Korea, Iran, and Taiwan as well as foreign assistance, energy security, and climate change.  According to Xinhua, the two sides had a “frank, sincere, and in-depth exchange of views on the development and changes in the international situation, how to ensure the long-term healthy and steady development of China-U.S. relations and strengthen coordination and cooperation on regional and international issues between the two countries, and other issues.”  Xinhua cited Negroponte’s commitment to develop “constructive, long-term and stable relations of comprehensive cooperation with China.”  The U.S. proposed launching a high-level dialogue on development assistance that would be headed on the U.S. side by Director of U.S. Foreign Assistance Henrietta Fore.

Breaking new ground, a Chinese military officer was included in the Senior Dialogue in Guiyang.  This followed the first-time inclusion of a participant from the Pentagon in the prior round last June.  At the Guiyang talks, Maj. Gen. Ding Jingong represented the PLA and Assistant Secretary of Defense James Shinn represented the Department of Defense.

After the Dec. 31 deadline passed for Pyongyang to provide a complete declaration of its nuclear programs and its past proliferation activities with no signs of progress, Secretary Rice headed to the region in late February in an attempt to break the logjam.  North Korea was at the top of the agenda in Rice’s meetings in Beijing, her second stop after Seoul.  The Chinese tabled some creative ideas during the discussions and Rice instructed Assistant Secretary Christopher Hill, the U.S. negotiator to the Six-Party Talks, to remain in Beijing for further talks.  On her way to Tokyo, Rice told the press that she remained confident that the Chinese are using their influence with the North Koreans because they want to achieve denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.  “They are meeting their obligations,” she added.

Although Rice’s stopover in Beijing was short, she covered a broad range of issues and held meetings with Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, State Councilor Tang Jiaxuan, Premier Wen Jiabao, and President Hu Jintao.  In addition to North Korea, the two sides discussed Darfur, Burma, Taiwan, foreign assistance, and human rights while providing an assessment of the overall development of the bilateral relationship.  A major achievement of the visit was an agreement to resume the U.S.-China human rights dialogue, which was halted by Beijing in 2004 when the Bush administration sponsored a resolution before the UN Human Rights Commission to censure China.

According to the Chinese official media, in Rice’s meeting with Hu Jintao the two sides agreed to “step up bilateral constructive and cooperative relations and handle ties from a long-term and strategic perspective.”  Hu applauded the progress in the bilateral relationship made in recent years, saying that “The cooperation keeps expanding and the strategic significance of the bilateral ties grow higher and higher.”  Rice expressed her appreciation for Chinese efforts to resolve international issues, including North Korea and Darfur.  Underscoring Chinese concern about the upcoming March elections in Taiwan, Hu stressed that China would “resolutely deter the adventurist activities of Taiwan independence separatist forces.”  Perhaps in an effort to reassure the Bush administration that Beijing would not overreact to possible developments on Taiwan, Hu added that efforts would be made “to prudently handle the Taiwan issue.”

Speaking to the press alongside Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, Rice reiterated U.S. commitment to a one-China policy, U.S. opposition to unilateral changes in cross-Taiwan Strait relations, and U.S. expectations that differences between Beijing and Taipei will be solved peacefully.  In addition, she restated the Bush administration’s opposition to the Democratic Progressive Party’s referendum asking Taiwan voters whether they supported joining the United Nations under the title of Taiwan.  Rice indicated that the referendum was “not constructive and would, in fact, serve no useful purpose.”  When the referendum was held in tandem with the Taiwan presidential elections on March 22, it did not pass because only 35 percent of eligible voters participated in the referendum, which was significantly less than the 50 percent that is required for it to be valid.

U.S. officials said Rice specifically discussed with Yang Jiechi the arrest of Hu Jia, among China’s most prominent political dissidents, and the continued jailing of Jude Shao, a China-born U.S. businessman who is serving a 15-year sentence on tax evasion charges he and his supporters say were fabricated.  Acknowledging to reporters that she had raised individual human rights cases with the Chinese, Rice maintained, “We do this with respect but these are issues that are very near and dear to American values.”

FBI Director Mueller in Beijing for Olympic security talks

Cooperation between Chinese and U.S. intelligence and law-enforcement agencies gained attention in early January with the three-day visit of FBI Director Robert Mueller to Beijing.  China’s preparation for the Beijing Olympics was the main focus of the visit.  Mueller toured Olympic venues in the Chinese capital and was briefed by the police, paramilitary, and counter-intelligence agencies in charge of security for the August games.  In brief remarks to reporters, Mueller termed China’s security preparations for the Olympics “impressive” and acknowledged that the FBI was lending its expertise on fending off possible terrorist attacks.  In addition to Olympic security, he cited terrorism, computer crimes, and corruption as areas of Sino-U.S. cooperation.  “Both countries face threats from terrorism, face threats from cyber-crime, hackers and the like and so my discussions with my counterparts here have discussed those areas where we have mutual concerns,” Mueller said.

Taiwan’s election relieves worries, raises new concerns

The election of Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Ma Ying-jeou as Taiwan’s president and the defeat of the referendum that asked Taiwan voters if they wanted to join the United Nations under the name of Taiwan eliminated a potential crisis for Beijing and produced a new strategic opportunity to transform cross-Strait relations.  In the March 26 phone call between Presidents Bush and Hu, Bush encouraged China to reach out to Taiwan and to try and resolve differences.  According to Xinhua, Hu expressed his expectation that the Chinese mainland and Taiwan will make joint efforts and create preconditions to formally end their hostility through consultation, reach a peace agreement, construct a framework for peaceful development, and usher in a new situation of cross-Strait relations.

Even as Chinese fears about the dangers of Taiwan independence began to recede, new worries surfaced.  Chinese scholars visiting Washington voiced concern that U.S.-Chinese cooperation to manage Taiwan, which they viewed as bolstering trust between the two countries, would now come to an end.  They feared a rapid improvement in U.S.-Taiwan relations, heralded by a possible visit to the U.S. by Ma Ying-jeou prior to his inauguration and potential approval of Taiwan’s request to purchase 66 F-16 C/D fighter jets, could come at China’s expense and cause Beijing to be cautious in responding to Ma’s victory.  Speaking at a conference held at The Brookings Institution, Yuan Peng, director of the American Studies Institute under the China Contemporary Institutes of International Relations, called for Washington and Taipei to avoid taking steps that would rouse Chinese suspicions and instead reassure China so as to promote positive-sum rather than zero-sum interactions among the U.S., China, and Taiwan in the future. 

Headway in bilateral military ties

Adm. Timothy Keating made a four-day trip to China in mid-January, his second visit since assuming his post as commander of the U.S. Pacific Command in March 2007.  In Beijing, Keating met with Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Guo Boxiong, PLA General Staff Chief Chen Bingde and his deputy Ma Xiaotian, Ding Jingong, deputy chief of the Ministry of Defense’s Foreign Affairs Office, and Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi.  Keating also visited the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences where he held a seminar with Chinese researchers.

Chinese media reporting on the visit was upbeat, reflecting the positive trends in recent months in the U.S.-Chinese military relationship.  In an interview after Keating’s meetings in Beijing, China’s official news agency for overseas Chinese reported Ding Jingong’s statement that the visit played a “positive role” in enhancing bilateral military cooperation.  In a sign of Beijing’s willingness to get beyond the issues that caused the November denial of the USS Kitty Hawk port visit to Hong Kong, Xinhua quoted Ding as saying that China welcomed suggestions Keating made for more mutual port visits, as well as for observation of multinational and bilateral military drills and exchange programs for commissioned and non-commissioned officers.

Chinese concerns about Taiwan independence activities and U.S. actions that allegedly encourage Taiwan independence were raised in every meeting.  Using especially tough language, Guo Boxiong called for the U.S. to “stop its arms sales to Taiwan, stop its military connections with Taiwan, refrain from sending wrong signals to Taiwan, and jointly maintain the Taiwan Strait’s peace and stability.”

Keating also visited Shanghai and Guangzhou, where he toured PLA military institutions and bases.  In Guangzhou, Keating was hosted by Lt. Gen. Zhang Qinsheng, formerly PLA deputy chief of staff, who is now commander of the Guangzhou Military Region.  At the Navy Service Arms Command Academy, Keating delivered a speech in which he stressed the desire of the U.S. military to cooperate with all countries in the Asia-Pacific region, including China, to protect peace and stability in the region.

Talking with the press in Beijing, Keating highlighted trust, confidence, and transparency as the themes of the visit.  He maintained that he is developing “an honest and true friendship” with some of China’s senior officials, adding “I can pick up the phone and call some of these guys.”  In response to a question about why the USS Kitty Hawk transited the Taiwan Strait after it was denied entry into Hong Kong and headed for its home port Yokosuka, Keating noted that there had been inclement weather on the leeward side of Taiwan. In addition, he bluntly stated that the Taiwan Strait is international water and the U.S. does not need China’s permission to sail through it.  “We will exercise our free right of passage whenever and wherever we choose as we have done repeatedly in the past and we’ll do in the future,” Keating stated.  These comments were strongly denounced by Chinese netizens on several popular mainstream and military enthusiast bulletin boards in China.

At the end of January, China permitted the USS Blue Ridge, an amphibious command ship and the flagship of the Seventh Fleet, along with its 700 crew members to make a port call in Hong Kong.  Bilateral military ties took another step forward in February with the signing of an accord on providing access to military records that may yield information on the remains of U.S. military personnel missing from the 1950-53 Korean War and the finalizing of an agreement to install a hotline between the two militaries.  Ambassador Charles A. Ray, deputy assistant secretary of defense for POW/missing personnel affairs and Maj. Gen. Qian Lihua, director of the Ministry of National Defense Foreign Affairs Office, signed the accord on archive access in Shanghai.  The hotline agreement was signed by Qian Lihua and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense David Sedney, who was in Beijing for the fourth round of Sino-U.S. Defense Policy Coordination Talks.  The Chinese also agreed to convene expert-level discussions on nuclear strategy and policy issues that will include active duty military officers from China’s Second Artillery and the U.S. Strategic Command.  Presidents Bush and Hu agreed to launch a dialogue on nuclear matters in April 2006, but little progress has been made in the past two years.  In the meantime, China’s ongoing modernization of its nuclear arsenal has raised U.S. concerns and prompted calls for greater transparency about the intentions behind the program.

Finally, Chinese and U.S. naval officers concluded an annual maritime safety meeting under the framework of the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement.  Since the MMCA was signed in 1997, there have been seven plenary meetings, 12 working group meetings, and one special meeting.  According to China’s Defense Ministry, the two sides discussed holding a joint maritime exercise within the year.  Xinhua reported “the mechanism has played an important role in enhancing mutual understanding and trust, promoting China-U.S. maritime military safety, and deepening exchanges and cooperation between the two navies.”  In addition to the MMCA talks, the U.S. delegation, led by Maj. Gen. Thomas Conant, director for strategic planning and policy of the U.S. Pacific Command, met Rear Adm. Zhang Panhong, the deputy commander of the PLA North Sea Fleet, and visited the fleets of the Chinese navy.

In early March, the Pentagon released its annual assessment of Chinese military capabilities that is mandated by the U.S. Congress.  As in previous years, the report highlighted Beijing’s lack of transparency, which “poses risks to stability by increasing the potential for misunderstanding and miscalculation” and leads to “hedging against the unknown.”  The report claimed that although the near-term focus of China’s military modernization is preparing for contingencies in the Taiwan Strait, analysis of China’s military acquisitions and strategic thinking suggests Beijing is also developing capabilities for use in other regional contingencies, such as conflict over resources or disputed territories.  Chinese military programs generating concern include the development of cruise and ballistic missiles capable of striking aircraft carriers at sea, the test of an anti-satellite weapon, and the deployment of new intercontinental ballistic missiles.

China condemned the Pentagon’s report, saying it was a distortion of the facts, interfered in the country’s internal affairs, and demonstrated “Cold War thinking.”  Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Qin Gang declared “We are extremely dissatisfied,” and demanded that the U.S. “correctly recognize China and China’s development.”  In a critique of the report published in China Daily, the head of Fudan University’s Center for American Studies, Shen Dingli, objected to the report’s premise that “China is only permitted to engage in coastal defense and protect itself at its front door.”  Shen also contended that China had been compelled to develop space capabilities after years of unsuccessfully trying to persuade the U.S. not to militarize outer space.

Stable and Complicated

Chinese specialists on America remain cautiously upbeat about the development and prospects for Sino-U.S. relations.  Writing in Beijing Review, People’s University Associate Dean Jin Canrong summed up Sino-American ties in 2007 as stable and complicated.  He maintained that the attitudes of both sides toward the concept of “stakeholders” suggest that their relationship will head in a positive direction.  In the future, Jin suggested, two factors will determine the stable development of future Sino-American ties: Whether the U.S. accepts China’s peaceful rise as a fact, and whether China accepts the existing world system under U.S. domination.

In an interview with China Daily, Chu Shulong, another leading America expert from Qinghua University, asserted that after many years of friction, relations between China and the U.S. have entered a period of strategic stability.  “As long as the two sides can properly handle the Taiwan question and jointly deal with the threat posed by the Taiwan independence forces, bilateral ties will develop steadily in the coming years,” Chu said.

Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2008, the main event in Sino-U.S. relations will be the fourth session of the Strategic Economic Dialogue, scheduled to be held in Washington in June.  This is likely to be the last SED meeting under the Bush administration.  A visit by Wu Bangguo, Politburo Standing Committee member and chairman of the National People’s Congress, is also under discussion.  Wu’s visit had been planned for October last year, but was canceled after Washington provided an unusually public and warm reception for the Dalai Lama and awarded him a medal.  No chairman of the NPC has visited the U.S. since Wan Li in 1989, nearly two decades ago, and both countries hope to realize the visit in the coming months.